加拿大华人论坛 加拿大房产Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无

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最近总有人 (尤其是地产业相关人员) 在鼓吹说 房市虽然成交量跌，但价绝不会跌。 这种"永恒看多派"的理论在去年的大温及现在的大多市场不少见。举个例：一位大多BMO房贷经纪 一周前讲过:[GF] 归纳了一条谬论：成交量下降，房价就会下降。这是HUSHUO。利率如此之低，没有大规模失业，房主会降价卖自己的房子吗？有人犹豫要不要买房，市场走缓，很正常，作为卖家当然不愿以这个时候卖房，所以交投清淡。但如果以此类推说房价会跌，纯属HUCHE。点击展开...只见前几天BMO 分析师Robert Kavcic 才在主流媒体上发表 "大多房市动态明确呈现: 房市已步向买方市场" 之言， 昨日Globe & Mail 接着刊出以下这篇报导:"成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价"When home sales sink, prices are sure to follow MICHAEL BABADThe Globe and MailPublished Friday, Oct. 05 2012In Vancouver, sales plunged 32.5 per cent in September from a year earlier. On a trend basis, sales were more than 40 per cent below a 10-year September average. The benchmark price slipped just 0.8 per cent.大温成交量9月同比大跌32.5%， 而比10年来的平均9月成交量大跌过40%。 大温指标价已开始下跌0.8%。In Toronto, where there are fears in particular of a condo bubble, sales in September dropped 21 per cent while prices climbed 8.5 per cent.大多成交量下跌21%，但均价还是升了8.5%。But as Royal LePage and other observers pointed out, softer prices will follow the downturn in sales, which have been hit by tighter federal mortgage rules, exhortations by the Bank of Canada and others for Canadians to get their record debt burdens under control, and generally lofty housing costs.一些观察房市的分析师，包括地产公司Royal LePage, 已指出，下跌的成交量必将带来下跌的房价。 紧缩的房贷，央行对加国人民负债率过多的警示，及过高的房价，均为成交量下跌的原因。“Home prices are defying logic and holding remarkably steady, or in some cases, still rising significantly, such as in Toronto and Calgary,” said Prof. John Andrew of the Queen’s School of Urban and Regional Planning.“This will be temporary, with a normal lag of three to six months between significant sales volume changes and home price changes.”房价虽目前看来完全违背逻辑，不是看似持平 (大温) 就是继续上扬 （大多，卡城），但这现象只是短暂的， 加拿大皇后大学都市规划学院教授 John Andrew 说。通常我们可以在成交量大幅变化后的3到6个月内见到因其引起的房价变动。In Vancouver’s case, agreed Sal Guatieri of BMO Nesbitt Burns, prices “can only head lower in the face of a dozen active listings for every sale, and as buyers seek revenge after a decade-long boom that took average prices up 140 per cent.”BMO 证卷公司 副总裁 兼资深分析师 Sal Guatieri 指出， 以大温的现状而言，每12个房源只有一个成交。 大温房价未来只有一个方向，就是下跌。买方的复仇终将来临。http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/when-home-sales-sink-prices-are-sure-to-follow/article4593044/?cmpid=rss1BMO副总裁 兼资深分析师Sal Guatieri + BMO分析师Robert Kavcic vs BMO房贷经纪 Henry Wang ..

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GreaterFool 大傻的温哥华房市分析站 First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。某知名房地产经纪，自称“专家中的经济，经济中的专家”说：“大温房地产市场从来就不缺钱，房价下跌是绝无可能的。” 另外一个某知名地产经纪，每个月在报纸上都登整版广告，在政府把30个月贷款改为25个月之前一星期在各大网站和报纸发言：“大温房地产利空出尽利好随时出现，要买就趁现在。”

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回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。某知名房地产经纪，自称“专家中的经济，经济中的专家”说：“大温房地产市场从来就不缺钱，房价下跌是绝无可能的。” 另外一个某知名地产经纪，每个月在报纸上都登整版广告，在政府把30个月贷款改为25个月之前一星期在各大网站和报纸发言：“大温房地产利空出尽利好随时出现，要买就趁现在。”点击展开...最近几个月加拿大经济表现不错，相信央行会提前加息的

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When you judge another person, you do not define him or her, you define yourself.回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。天天编造房市下跌的数据，不敢承认房市现状的都是怀有不可告人的目的、没钱买房子的。

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回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。看大家讨论的比较热烈，把我在英文网站上看到多伦多房屋Price Change（降价）统计贴。希望可以共同探讨多伦多未来房价走势。Oct 6th(part)***************************************************************C2424709 ? M2P ? 62 YORKMINSTER RD Toronto, Ontario ? $2,750,000Price Change. Oct 6: $2,750,000 Jul 24: $2,875,000C2439007 ? M6J ? 679 RICHMOND ST W Toronto, Ontario ? $589,900Price Change. Oct 6: $589,900 Aug 14: $659,900C2447929 ? M3A ? 56 THREE VALLEYS DR Toronto, Ontario ? $419,900Price Change. Oct 6: $419,900 Sep 22: $435,000 Aug 26: $449,000C2457328 ? M2J ? 53 GLENTWORTH RD Toronto, Ontario ? $799,900Price Change. Oct 6: $799,900 Sep 8: $819,900C2461293 ? M5N ? 59 ALEXANDRA WOOD Toronto, Ontario ? $2,850,000Price Change. Oct 6: $2,850,000 Sep 13: $2,950,000C2462911 ? M2R ? 283 HORSHAM AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $699,000Price Change. Oct 6: $699,000 Sep 14: $759,000C2463173 ? M3C ? 55 SUNNY GLWY Toronto, Ontario ? $169,900Price Change. Oct 6: $169,900 Sep 15: $174,900C2464265 ? M5M ? 56 BURNCREST DR Toronto, Ontario ? $759,000Price Change. Oct 6: $759,000 Sep 16: $819,90C2464898 ? M2N ? 2960 A BAYVIEW AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $1,025,000Price Change. Oct 6: $1,025,000 Sep 18: $1,125,000C2469959 ? M2H ? 26 FLAVIAN CRES Toronto, Ontario ? $569,800Price Change. Oct 6: $569,800 Sep 22: $599,800C2471813 ? M2R ? 59 FARRELL AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $639,000Price Change. Oct 6: $639,000 Sep 26: $649,000C2472750 ? M4R ? 86 HELENDALE AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $625,000Price Change. Sep 27: $574,999 Oct 6: $625,000C2474412 ? M2H ? 18 GREYHOUND DR Toronto, Ontario ? $597,800Price Change. Oct 6: $597,800 Sep 28: $599,000C2479993 ? M2N ? 35 LAILEY CRES Toronto, Ontario ? $1,198,000Price Change. Oct 5: $1,188,000 Oct 6: $1,198,000E2444322 ? M1W ? 270 TIMBERBANK BLVD Toronto, Ontario ? $273,800Price Change. Oct 6: $273,800 Sep 19: $278,800 Aug 21: $288,888E2445927 ? M1E ? 4272 KINGSTON RD Toronto, Ontario ? $339,000Price Change. Oct 6: $339,000 Aug 23: $349,000E2446136 ? M1T ? 15 PARTRIDGE LANE Toronto, Ontario ? $949,999Price Change. Oct 6: $949,999 Sep 7: $999,000 Aug 23: $999,800E2446887 ? M1E ? 80 OAKMEADOW BLVD Toronto, Ontario ? $487,000Price Change. Oct 6: $487,000 Aug 24: $519,800E2447241 ? M1K ? 60 NORTH WOODROW BLVD Toronto, Ontario ? $479,000Price Change. Oct 6: $479,000 Sep 13: $499,900 Aug 25: $529,900E2453768 ? M1E ? 21 SHOREVIEW DR Toronto, Ontario ? $499,900Price Change. Oct 6: $499,900 Sep 28: $505,000 Sep 5: $515,000E2456489 ? M1B ? 1795 MARKHAM RD Toronto, Ontario ? $359,900Price Change. Oct 6: $359,900 Sep 30: $369,900 Sep 7: $384,900E2457911 ? M1G ? 9 ANGORA ST Toronto, Ontario ? $390,000Price Change. Oct 6: $390,000 Sep 9: $475,000E2461799 ? M1E ? 4655B KINGSTON RD Toronto, Ontario ? $369,900Price Change. Oct 6: $369,900 Sep 13: $389,000E2462510 ? M4C ? 2 TRENTON AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $599,900Price Change. Oct 6: $599,900 Sep 14: $649,900E2463107 ? M4J ? 286 MORTIMER AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $529,800Price Change. Oct 6: $529,800 Sep 14: $539,900E2467519 ? M1B ? 38 WHISPERING WILLO PTWY Toronto, Ontario ? $319,000Price Change. Oct 6: $319,000 Sep 20: $324,900W2453880 ? M8V ? 32 CAVELL AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $449,000Price Change. Oct 6: $449,000 Sep 6: $499,000W2456711 ? M8V ? 240 SIXTH ST Toronto, Ontario ? $279,900Price Change. Oct 6: $279,900 Sep 25: $290,000 Sep 8: $299,000W2456732 ? M6A ? 760 LAWRENCE AVE W Toronto, Ontario ? $324,000Price Change. Oct 6: $324,000 Sep 20: $330,000 Sep 8: $335,000W2461056 ? M9B ? 1 MARTINVIEW CRT Toronto, Ontario ? $649,900Price Change. Oct 6: $649,900 Sep 13: $679,000W2461067 ? M9R ? 25 GRACEY BLVD Toronto, Ontario ? $619,000Price Change. Oct 6: $619,000 Sep 13: $639,000W2463888 ? M9R ? 55 SUNVALE DR Toronto, Ontario ? $824,900Price Change. Oct 6: $824,900 Sep 15: $889,000**********************************Oct 7th**********************************C2458397 ? M5T ? 20 GLASGOW ST Toronto, Ontario ? $549,500Price Change. Oct 7: $549,500 Sep 10: $575,000C2466481 ? M2N ? 176 ELMWOOD AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $2,200,000Price Change. Oct 7: $2,200,000 Sep 19: $2,290,000C2469875 ? M6J ? 56 FENNINGS ST Toronto, Ontario ? $899,999Price Change. Oct 7: $899,999 Sep 22: $923,000 E2437427 ? M1B ? 30 ORMEROD ST Toronto, Ontario ? $369,900Price Change. Oct 7: $369,900 Aug 11: $379,900E2453768 ? M1E ? 21 SHOREVIEW DR Toronto, Ontario ? $499,990Price Change. Oct 6: $499,900 Oct 7: $499,990 Sep 28: $505,000 Sep 5: $515,000E2454232 ? M1K ? 802 MIDLAND AVE Toronto, Ontario ? $479,000Price Change. Oct 7: $479,000 Sep 6: $499,000E2455950 ? M1V ? 19 MELVA CRES Toronto, Ontario ? $515,000Price Change. Oct 7: $515,000 Sep 7: $529,000

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回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。??，如果下跌，?有多大幅度？短期多少？樘期多少？希望不吝兕教。点击展开...看来您手里有至少一套房在大多，GF对大多房市只是处于观察大局， 而未精细到每区的变动。大多公寓短期来看风险远高于独立屋。 以供需来看，大多公寓单位有望在今年底明年初便见到有意义的降价，而独立屋可能要等到明年底/后年初。大温的话，请见GF 旧帖http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?p=8442293#post8442293http://forum.iask.ca/showpost.php?p=8444554&postcount=1029

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GreaterFool 大傻的温哥华房市分析站 First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.回复: Globe & Mail: 大温，大多成交量不断下跌，将无可避免地拖下房价。真的摸？翘头盼望着这一天快来

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