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James Wong, 即两个月前预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%， 及上个月发表 "列治文跌幅加大，将持续几年，越早卖亏越少" 的列治文地产经纪， 今日再著作两篇文章。1。列治文地产展望:Market sentiment has deteriorated further. Buyers prefer to stay on the sideline, waiting for home prices to fall further. The only way out for sellers who are determined to sell was to price their home more aggressively. Sellers who are taking deep cuts in reducing their selling prices are the ones likely to succeed in selling their homes.市场信心继续恶化。 潜在买方继续在旁观望，看着房价继续下跌。真正急着要卖的卖方只有一个选择，就是以更大幅度砍下要价。 目前市场惟有砍的够深的卖方才有指望有买家青睐。Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 353 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 29 months supply of homes. The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.列治文大于$1M 的独立屋继续不受买方青睐。其总房源为686，过去3个月平均每月成交28户，达到24.5个月的滞销。 列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋表现继续差劲，总房源为353， 过去3个月平均每月成交12户，达到29个月的滞销。 列治文房市的跌幅将需要许多年才会跌到底。Now with the housing market experiencing a huge drop in sales, large over-hang of supply and poor market sentiment, home price decline is inevitable.During the 1995 to 2001 downturn, not only employment in the construction industry contracted, thousands of real estate agents quit the business.目前成交量大跌，房源滞销极高， 房价的下跌是无可避免的事实。在1995-2001年处于下滑周期的房市，不只建筑业遭遇紧缩，几千个地产经纪也丢了饭碗。
2。强烈迹象显示，大温房市已进入将为期多年的下跌趋势。We are now witnessing the unwinding of the housing market. It will take many years before owning a home makes sense again. Home prices are not going up now or holding. Instead, the housing market is coming down in values. The rush to exit the market will take its toll on sellers who bought their homes recently.我们现在目睹的，是正在下跌中的大温房市。 我们还需要许多年才会见底。 房价现在不是上升，不是持平，而是已开始下跌。先知先觉的卖家正在夺门而出， 而最近(一年)才买房的卖家会面临逐日而增的亏损。评论
GreaterFool 大傻的温哥华房市分析站 First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始螳螂还在琢磨：如果螳螂多的话，或许能挡住哦。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始LZ 说说什么时候才可以入市？
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始经纪软文，鉴定完毕。小心被经纪忽悠了，哈哈。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始经纪不容易，多空双方哪头都没没好脸色看。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始经纪日子不好过呀，先要忽悠买房的出高价，还要忽悠卖家挂低价，这样才能成交呀，哈哈，够累的。无法忽悠高价接盘，只好忽悠低价放盘了。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始都是那帮炒房的给害的。当地人原来换房很平凡的，基本平均5年换一次，从AP，TH 再到 SH，然后 Rancher， 再回到AP，当中生活若有变数，那次数还得增加。哪象现在房价推得这么高，人人把它当作暴富的工具，弄得很多没条件的创造条件也要上，当地人怨声载道，房子流通的渠道给堵死了。如果保持健康的房产市场，经纪不会没饭吃的。当然，房价不高，经纪费也低一点。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始房地产形式这么好，忽悠高价接盘应该更容易吧，而且jj也赚得多。点击展开...很多房主08年被经纪忽悠低价卖了房子，现在这一套还有用么。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始Metro Vancouver house prices continue to fall as sales drop below historical levelsreport BY BRIAN MORTON AND GERRY BELLETT, VANCOUVER SUN OCTOBER 3, 2012Vancouver home sales fell 32.5 per cent in September compared with a year ago, says the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.Photograph by: Gerry Kahrmann , Vancouver SunMetro Vancouver home prices continue to drop as sales activity falls sharply below historical levels, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.“We thought we’d see a slight increase in activity in September, but we didn’t,” said REBGV president Eugen Klein. “There doesn’t seem to be any urgency between either the buyer or the seller.”According to the board’s monthly report, September’s benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver fell 0.8 per cent to $606,000 from September 2011. That followed a year-over-year decline of 0.5 per cent in August.For the Lower Mainland ? which includes the Fraser Valley ? the benchmark price dropped 0.1 per cent, the first price drop this year.Prices fell more sharply in expensive areas including Richmond, West Vancouver and Vancouver West, which saw a sharp run-up in prices in 2010 and 2011.Vancouver West, for example, saw a 6.5-per-cent, year-over-year decline in the benchmark price of single detached homes to $2.09 million.According to the report, buying activity slackened during September with sales of only 1,516 properties ― a 32-per-cent decline from the 2,246 sales recorded in September 2011 and 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.“West Vancouver, the west side (of Vancouver) and Richmond are all down five to eight per cent from the peak earlier this year,” noted Tsur Somerville, director, centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C. “In contrast, the Coquitlams, the Deltas, the Maple Ridges, the Burnabys are down one to three per cent. The areas that had the most intense run-up in 2010 and 2011 are the ones where prices are weakening more.”Somerville noted that a few areas still saw prices rise in the year, including Squamish’s five-per-cent price hike ― the highest in the region.“This is the first time since 2007, 2008, when prices have come down by this degree,” added Somerville. “When you have nine months of continuous months of weak sales, it will show up on the price side.”Somerville believes high prices, and reduced economic optimism, are behind the sales drop. “And cycles happen.”Klein said some of the fall-off in sales could be attributed to the federal government’s decision to eliminate 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages.“This makes homes less affordable for the people of the region,” said Klein.Somerville doesn’t believe that’s the case, because sales started slowing before the new rules were introduced.Further east, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, that includes Surrey, reported Tuesday that for the second month in a row, sales have dropped to historically low levels. In September, there were 857 sales, a decrease of 26 per cent compared to 1,165 sales in September 2011.Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said the low sales numbers are a surprise, because full-time job growth is rising, interest rates are at historic lows and Metro Vancouver’s population continues to rise.He too believes it’s largely because of tighter mortgage regulations, that weak job and sales growth in 2011 that may have spilled over into 2012, and “consumers just taking a break from the market.“I believe (sales) will pick up (to the 10-year average) towards the end of the year or in the first two quarters of 2013.”Meanwhile, a survey conducted this fall by Mustel Research Group on behalf of the REW.ca, a Vancouver-based real estate search site has found 58 per cent of Metro Vancouver residents believe this is not a good time to sell a home.The survey’s main findings are:confidence in the market has dropped because of a belief prices are on their way down, sales were slowing and there were too many properties for salethe largest deterrent for buying include high prices coupled with a fear of home values dropping after purchasethe main reason people stay in the country’s most expensive housing market is because of family which beat out the region’s much-touted livability, scenery and climate as reasons for living here.REW.ca general manager Ian Martin said September was usually the month when real estate sales begin firing up.“We are not seeing that. People are not buying, so from a seller point of view they see price corrections happening and say ‘I don’t have to sell my home right now, I think I’ll wait this one out.”[email protected]@vancouversun.com© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始这个经济自住的房子如果也砍价卖了，这篇文章就会比较有力量。
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一叶知秋回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始拿个大喇叭在天车站大吼：“房子十年翻一倍！“还怕没人买？
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始跌与涨,对于我们要自住的人来说没什么大的意义,跌点,地税还少交点呢...
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始跌与涨,对于我们要自住的人来说没什么大的意义,跌点,地税还少交点呢...点击展开...这是大实话
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始拿个大喇叭在天车站大吼：“房子十年翻一倍！“还怕没人买？点击展开...问题是过去十年不止翻了一倍吧，未来10年，货币增长一倍的话，房价会怎样。有本事就10年别买房，就存钱，看看10年后是房子值钱还是现金保值。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始夺门而出。。。这词用的学问啊！
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始跌与涨,对于我们要自住的人来说没什么大的意义,跌点,地税还少交点呢...点击展开...地税和房价没有关系只与市政府的预算有关系（假设其他转移财政在内的各种收入不变的情况下）
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始前两年被LZ忽悠卖房子的现在后悔坏了，本来是住HS的，可现在连个RP都买不到了。
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回复: 列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始前两年被LZ忽悠卖房子的现在后悔坏了，本来是住HS的，可现在连个RP都买不到了。点击展开...据我了解，大傻是在一年前开始“忽悠”。
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