在加拿大
Scotiabank Sees Eight Bank of Canada Rate Hikes by End of 2023
The Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate four times in the second half of next year and another four times in 2023, according to a top economist at the Bank of Nova Scotia.
Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem will begin a series of eight 25-basis-point hikes in July of next year, Scotiabank’s Derek Holt said Wednesday on BNN Bloomberg Television. That will be followed by moves in September, October, and December. Holt predicted the pace of tightening would then slow, with quarterly moves in 2023 bringing the policy rate to 2.25% by the end of that year.
Holt’s aggressive forecast came after Statistics Canada reported that yearly inflation hit 4.4% in September, the highest since February 2003 and the sixth consecutive month of readings beyond the central bank’s control range.
“This isn’t transitory at all,” Holt said on BNN. “You can’t just talk through inflation readings like this.”
With rates currently at an emergency low of 0.25%, Scotia’s estimates mean the Bank of Canada would bring borrowing costs into the neutral range -- the point at which they are no longer stimulative nor restrictive -- within about two years. The hiking cycle would put the country’s key lending rate at its highest level since 2008.
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哈哈哈哈哈哈 加息八次，政府吓尿了
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真加息八次，咱们准备好钱准备抄底买政府资产就好了
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加息，经济会越来越好？还是越来越差？连一支独秀的地产都崩了，那才叫精彩！
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消费起不来，还敢加8次，美联储都只敢说3-4次。
贬币值，普涨工资才是正道。
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吹，继续。反正不用上税。
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加息是板上钉钉的事呀为啥好多人觉得政府不敢，现在唯一的变量是加息的速率，通胀率如果持续高居不下加息日程肯定是要更aggresive，之前央行说辞很鸽派是因为他们觉得高通胀率是暂时的，但现在看来并不是。 加不加息是BOC决定的，也不是联邦政府的事。下面是Bloomberg根据live curve rate推出来的加息概率，2022年9月前加3次。概率最近一直在上升， 大家细品
screenshot_1634757261944.gif (0 B)2021/10/20 15:42:36
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原帖由 yl89123 于 2021/10/20 15:43:56 发表
加息是板上钉钉的事呀为啥好多人觉得政府不敢，现在唯一的变量是加息的速率，通胀率如果持续高居不下加息日程肯定是要更aggresive，之前央行说辞很鸽派是因为他们...... 你来房版说这个肯定是不行的。都觉得zf欠债就不敢加息，话说利息才几个钱，欠债比一年GDP高点吧。不会有人觉得一年挣十万的人，还不起年息3%的十万块钱债务吧？
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按照压力测试规则，申请贷款时的还款能力是按照至少利率+2来就算的，从理论上讲，涨2个点短期内应该可以接受。当然，如果利率涨得过快过猛导致经济萧条，房主失业无法按时付贷款，那就是另外一个问题了。
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yl89123 发表在7楼
加息是板上钉钉的事呀为啥好多人觉得政府不敢，现在唯一的变量是加息的...哈哈bloomberg 有钱人
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