加拿大华人论坛 加拿大留学移民美国投资移民 - 问下纽约曼哈顿万豪酒店项目和马里兰州巴尔的摩市州政府中心大楼项目高人分析下，小弟谢谢了

在加拿大

另外问下亨瑞公司做的移民好吗。。看了许多EB5的帖子，想了头都痛了还没得出方案。。小弟谢谢各位好心人了

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回复: 问下纽约曼哈顿万豪酒店项目和马里兰州巴尔的摩市州政府中心大楼项目高人分析下，小弟谢谢对于同行公司实行回避，不予评说。仅就项目的疑点提出问题，供投资者参考。 1、这两个项目都是建设周期不超过2[FONT=宋体]年，因此建设过程中的建筑用工，不被计为直接就业人数。[/FONT] [FONT=宋体]2、纽约万豪酒店项目的就业模式采用的是EPR公司的REDYN就业模式，而该计算模式是依赖底层的直接就业人数的。审查项目的经济和就业影响报告，却发现依然计算了75或80个建筑直接用工。大家都知道在I-829解除条件阶段，USCIS看的是第三年完成的就业，(注意284个房间，第4年才够）而且是指的对项目所在的区域中心地域范围内的，可是报告却将对整个美国的经济影响也计算在内。因此项目采用REDYN做就业计算模型，不仅是不明智的，其结果也是牵强的。[/FONT][FONT=宋体]80+110+1353=1543<160*10==1600[/FONT] [FONT=宋体]3、纽约万豪酒店的TEA虽然用的是2010年的失业率数据，但是采用的Census Tract(人口普查区）却是单一的，与大都市Subdivision区域的人口要求达到20000人以上这一前提相冲突。正是由于人口基数太小，再加上采用的是第二代就业模式，I-829先到先得，如果通过该项目解决了该区域的部分失业人口，其失业率会发生显著变化，因此目前USCIS基本上倾向于不认定其为TEA地区。[/FONT] [FONT=宋体]4、EB-5资金比例太高，（不过比洛杉矶万豪的100%EB-5资金还是好多了）借力非EB-5资金创造就业困难，远不如EB-5资金25%以下的项目的就业盈余倍数高。（资金总额同等条件下，EB-5资金比例越低，就业盈余倍数高就越高）[/FONT] [FONT=宋体]。。。。[/FONT]ConclusionsThe results of the study show that both alternative project designs for the Manhattan Regional Center’s requested project pre-approval would have significant and positive economic and job creation impacts on the economy of theproposed regional center, as well as for the U.S. economy overall. The study also finds that the 30-county area corresponding to the New York Combined Metropolitan Statistical Area (“NYCSA”) is a logical economic area for theproposed Manhattan Regional Center, LLC. It is an area with strong economic, demographic, and transportat5ion linkages and has already been determined to be a functioning economic area by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (the “OMB”). The 385 room design option is expected to have an impact of 1,543 EB-5 eligible jobs in the Manhattan RC’s regional economy―the proposed 30-county geographic region of the prospective regional center―in impact year 3. Overall,the U.S. economy is expected to experience an increase of approximately 2,543 additional jobs by year 3. This impact includes an estimated 190 direct EB-5 eligible jobs―composed of 80 EB-5 eligible Construction jobs and 110 EB-5 eligible jobs to operate the prospective Marriott hotel, 1,353 indirect jobs at other locations with the geography of the proposed regional center, and an additional 962 jobs in the balance of the U.S. economy. These job impacts correspond to a 10.19 indirect jobs in the regional center for every direct, EB-5 eligible job in the requested activity areas for the proposed regional center including NAICS 721 ?Accommodations, and a total 2.90 indirect jobs in the requested regional economy of the proposed regional center for every direct, EB-5 eligible job in the NAICS 236 ? Construction. Benefits of the proposed 385 room hoteldevelopment design option would also include positive economic impacts on both the U.S. and Manhattan RC regional economies in terms of output and disposable income. For the U.S. economy overall, the 385 room design alternative would also result in an estimated $1,329.6 million in increased output and an additional $529.6million in disposable income, over the first 4 years of development and continued operations (dollar figures are reported in constant 2010 dollars). Most of thesebenefits would be concentrated in the Manhattan RC regional economy, with estimated cumulative economic benefits of $800.1 million in increased output andan additional $353.7 million in disposable income over the first 4 years of construction and operations (dollar figures reported in constant 2010 dollars)within the economy of the proposed Manhattan regional center. For the smaller 284 room design alternative, the prospective Manhattan Marriott hotel development project would have an impact of 1,180 EB-5 eligible jobs in the Manhattan RC regional economy in impact year 3. Overall, the U.S.economy is expected to experience an increase of approximately 1,945 additional jobs by year 3. This impact includes an estimated 165 direct, full time jobs―composed of 75 EB-5 eligible Construction jobs and 90 full-time jobs to operate the prospective Marriott hotel, 1,015 indirect jobs at other locations with the metro region, and an additional 742 jobs in the balance of the U.S. economy.These job impacts correspond to a 9.09 indirect jobs in the regional center for every direct, EB-5 eligible job in the requested activity areas for the proposed regional center including NAICS 721 ? Accommodations, and a total 2.63 indirect jobs in the requested regional economy of the proposed regional center for every direct, EB-5 eligible job in the NAICS 236 ? Construction. Benefits of the potential 284 room design alternative would also include positive economic impacts on both the U.S. economy and the Manhattan RC’s regional economy in terms of output and disposable income. For the U.S. economyoverall, the potential project would result in $1,032.2 million in increased and an additional $412.1 million in disposable income, over the first 4 years ofdevelopment and continued operations (dollar figures are reported in constant 2010 dollars). Most of these benefits would be concentrated in the Manhattan RCregional economy, with estimated cumulative economic benefits of $619.3 million in increased output and an additional $274.7 million in disposable income overthe first 4 years of construction and operations (dollar figures reported in constant 2010 dollars) within the economy of the regional center.

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不理闲事，不听废话，低头做事，抬头看路！均属个人观点，与所在机构无关 超赞 赏 L lylhm 0$(VIP 0) 622011-08-24#3 回复: 问下纽约曼哈顿万豪酒店项目和马里兰州巴尔的摩市州政府中心大楼项目高人分析下，小弟谢谢谢谢楼上。所以头啖汤还是好喝点。本来我蛮看重纽约万豪的简单股权关系，不过自己的资金迟迟不到位，现在应该已经是在吃牛尾巴了，怕碰上楼上说的526条件不满足。马里兰那个还在卖吗？没看到了呀

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