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因为EB-5绿卡是就业绿卡而不是商业风险绿卡。很多投资人，中介，甚至一些项目方都没有认识到就业报告对投资人得到829绿卡的重要性。有些负责任的项目方有决心去帮投资人申请永久绿卡成功，但没有掌握到正确的方式。这是我昨天与MILLER MAYER律师所的律师及项目方代表电话会议的讨论的问题。 现在开个贴子和投资人来研究一下就业报告的分析。欢迎投资人提深入的问题，切磋。 以下的文章是从著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS的网站摘贴的。他的讲解比较易懂。 How the EB-5 Program Works Overview The primary purpose of the program is to attract foreign investment to the U.S., which will create new jobs. From an economic viewpoint, the key requirement is that each investment must create a minimum of 10 new jobs. In some cases, the foreign party must invest a minimum of $1 million, while in other cases, the minimum is $500,000. The smaller number applies if the investment is located in (a) an area of high unemployment, currently defined as more than 150% of the national average unemployment rate for 2010, or (b) a rural area, currently defined as an area that is not in an MSA and is not within a municipality with population of over 20,000. Most of the EB-5 applications we have analyzed are based on the underlying assumption of a $500,000 investment per individual. How are the 10 jobs per investor calculated? In some cases, only direct jobs can be counted the jobs that are actually created by the new businesses that are started. In other cases, indirect and induced jobs can also be counted. For that to occur, the plan must include the formation of an EB-5 regional center, which requires additional paperwork, documentation, and economic analysis. However, because the job multipliers are usually at least 2, the incentives to form a regional center apply in almost all cases. We focus exclusively on those cases where regional centers are created. The comments here apply to the economic analysis. You will also need an immigration lawyer to prepare the requisite documents, and a local lawyer to prepare the private placement memorandum. Which model to use -- IMPLAN or RIMS II? There are several different input/output models accepted by the USCIS, but the two major ones are IMPLAN and RIMS II. The principal difference is that IMPLAN is an employment-driven model, while RIMS II is an output-drive model. To the non-economist, this may seem like a distinction without a difference. And in fact, the total number of jobs that are created as calculated by these two models is usually fairly similar. The big difference occurs at the verification stage. After the proposal has been submitted, it takes the USCIS several months to issue a decision. Once the approval has been obtained, individual immigrant investors must then file an I-526 petition, requesting a temporary green card. This process also usually takes several months. Once that is approved, another two years elapse. At that point, the immigrant investor files an I-829 petition requesting removal of the conditions on the temporary green card -- in other words, permission for the green card to become permanent. It is at that stage that the investor must show that 10 permanent new jobs have been created by the investment that was made at the beginning of the process. This requirement has led many investors -- and some EB-5 developers -- to assume that in fact they must produce documentary evidence for all direct permanent full-time jobs in the form of W-2s, I-9s, and quarterly payroll tax records. That is indeed one way to meet this requirement. BUT IT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY. Immigrant investors -- and hence their lawyers and EB-5 developers -- may also meet this requirement by showing that the total amount of construction expenditures, and the total amount of gross (top-line) revenues that have been achieved are equal to or greater than the amount of expenditures or revenues that were stated in the original proposal. In other words, verification can be made on expenditures and revenues as well as direct employees. If this latter method is used, then the economist uses the RIMS II input/output model for the economic impact analysis calculations. Thus each EB-5 developer, at the time of the original application, must determine which method is likely to be superior for verification at the I-829 level. An overwhelming majority of our clients have recently chosen the RIMS II model for the following reasons: 1. Verification of full-time workers may be difficult. Each employee must work 35 hours a week every week. In USCIS arithmetic, two half-time employees do not equal 1 full-time employee. They equal 0 full-time employees. This is particularly critical for construction jobs, and for seasonal and part-time jobs that are likely to occur in such industries as hotels, resorts, or retail sales. 2. All newly hired employees must be U.S. citizens. We assume that no one would deliberately skirt this requirement. On the other hand, illegal immigrants may obtain false papers. If the USCIS, with its deeper knowledge and data base of illegal immigrants, determines that false papers have been used, the developer has no recourse, and the I-829 petition will be denied. 3. Although the USCIS has repeatedly stated that it accepts a variety of recognized input/output model, the USCIS economist recently reiterated her position that she prefers the RIMS II model because of its greater transparency. Thus unless clients specifically state that they prefer the IMPLAN model and its direct employment approach, we will use the RIMS II model in our economic impact calculations. A Generic Example -- Retail Shopping Center To understand how the economic analysis works, consider the following generic example. A foreign investor plans to build a retail shopping center of 100,000 square feet. The construction costs will vary substantially depending on the location and type of buildings, but for purposes of this example, assume that the actual “hard” construction costs are $100 per square foot. Total costs, including soft costs, profits, and land purchases, are $200 per square foot. We make this distinction because, as will be explained below, the hard costs have some input into the total job count, whereas the other costs do not. The total hard construction cost is $10 million. This figure is multiplied by the RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction, which varies widely by region and can range anywhere from 5 to 20, although it is usually in the 10-15 range. Suppose it is 15. That means 150 total jobs would be created from construction activity, PROVIDING that all construction jobs can be counted. In many cases they cannot. The USCIS has ruled that for projects taking less than 2 years to complete, only the indirect and induced jobs can be counted. They are usually 1/3 to 1/2 of the total jobs. If the projects really do take more than 2 years, all jobs can be counted. However, in that case, the USCIS will require a timeline showing the expected expenditures each quarter. Do not be tempted to pretend that, for example, an 18-month project takes 2 years simply by stretching out the last 1% over a 6-month period. In general, a bell-shaped curve for expenditures would be appropriate. The actual sales per square foot will be based on the mix of stores and the location, but assume that the average is $500 per square foot. That would be a total of $50 million in sales. Here again, the RIMS II multiplier varies widely by region, but an average figure would be about 8. On this basis, 400 permanent new jobs would be created from the operations of the retail space. If all construction jobs are permanent, a total of 550 jobs would be created in this particular example. Since the EB-5 regulations require a minimum of 10 jobs per investor, that means there will be a maximum of 55 investors in this project. If each one puts up $500,000, the developer could raise up to $27.5 million, which would more than cover the $20 million total costs. However, it is always advisable to leave a cushion of 10% to 20% in case the sales goals are not met by the time the I-829 petition is filed. Actual cases will vary from this example. They depend, among other things, on the following parameters. All of these vary by the region chosen. 1. Cost of construction, per square foot2. RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction3. Mix of buildings constructed (big box stores, specialty shops, restaurants)4. Mix of retail stores (including restaurants)5. Sales per square foot for each type of establishment6. RIMS II final demand multiplier for retail sales All these data must be calculated separately for each individual project. The numbers are based on the RIMS II model, Census data, national and regional survey data, construction costs manuals, and individual research for specific projects. The numbers must be collected separately for each project and are not just “pulled off the shelf”. What are indirect and induced jobs? Indirect jobs are created when the business buys goods and services from local firms. For example, a construction firm might buy some of its materials locally, or purchase locally produced doors and windows or roof tiles. A retail store would buy some of its goods from wholesalers. It would probably hire outside firms for building maintenance, waste management, and security. Also, it would probably hire accountants, attorneys, and other professional business services. Induced jobs are created when the employees of the new business spend part of their paychecks on locally produced goods and services. That would ordinarily include purchases at supermarkets and gas stations, banking and real estate services, and health care. How big should the regional center be? It can range from a single project in a single location to a wide variety of projects covering an entire state. Currently, regional EB-5 centers exist for the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas, as well as smaller states such as Vermont and South Dakota. The amount of investment per regional center currently ranges from under $5 million to over $100 million. A distinction must be drawn, however, between the area covered by the regional center and the area used for calculating the employment multipliers. That area generally covers about four or five counties based on the pattern of where people live and work. Suppose, for example, a new project would be built in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. The employment multiplier would then include those counties where people live who work in Ft. Lauderdale; data on commuting patterns are available from the Census. In general, the counties are included that account for 90% to 95% of the total workforce of that county; in this example, the regional multipliers would be based on Miami-Dade and Broward counties. If too few counties are included, then the induced effects jobs created as new employees spend part of their paychecks locally would be understated. If too wide a region is included, the job multipliers would be overstated, and for that reason would probably be rejected by USCIS. Hence it is important to calculate the employment multipliers separately for each individual project, even if there are many such projects spread over a much larger area for the total regional center. Determining Areas of High Unemployment In some cases, entire counties will qualify because the unemployment rate is more than 150% of the national average. However, it is more often the case that the chosen area has a somewhat lower unemployment rate, but certain Census Tracts in the city or county have a sufficiently high unemployment rate to qualify as a Targeted Economic Area (TEA). In some cases, the governor of the state will provide such a list. In other cases, we calculate the TEAs based on unemployment and poverty statistics taken from Census data. There has been quite a bit of confusion about what areas qualify for a TEA. In a few cases, such as the state of Nevada for 2010, and a few urban counties in California and Florida, the unemployment rate exceeds the threshold level for 2010, which is 14.4%, so any location in Nevada, or in these high-unemployment counties, may be used. In general, however, that is not the case. The usual default position is to calculate the unemployment rate by individual census tract. While the BLS publishes monthly data on the unemployment rate for individual counties, and all cities with a population of over 20,000, the only unemployment rate data by Census Tract is for 2000. Hence these figures must be updated to 2010, using the Census Share method as explained in the Local Area Unemployment Statistics handbook. We will do these calculations for you. For any given address, we will determine whether the Census Tract where the planned facility will be located is a TEA. If it is, no further analysis is needed. However, it is more likely that the planned facility is NOT in a TEA. In that case, we will attempt to construct a TEA by combining that census tract with contiguous census tracts that have higher unemployment rates, such that the average unemployment rate in the combined area exceeds 14.4%. We will also undertake that calculation as part of our economic impact analysis report. Some states will then certify these results by writing a letter stating that the appropriately authorized agency of the state has verified that the area in question is a TEA. Some states, such as Florida and New York, are very helpful about writing such letters. California used to be helpful, but we were recently informed that due to budget cutbacks, they might not be able to provide that service any more. Many other states have been unwilling or unable to provide such certification. One final word about TEAs as they apply to rural locations. Your definition of "rural" may not be the same as the Census Bureau. Any county that is part of a metropolitan statistical area may not be considered rural, even if in fact the location you have chosen is devoid of population and overrun with scrub brush. You have to be outside an MSA to get the rural definition. Furthermore, even in rural counties, any city with a population of 20,000 or more will not qualify as a TEA based on the rural definition. What kind of businesses qualify? Virtually any legitimate business qualifies for which at least 10 permanent new full-time jobs are created per investor. It can be in manufacturing, retail trade, services, non-profit, research and development, or agriculture. Some of the businesses that have recently been approved include hotels, retail shopping centers and restaurants, office buildings, warehouses, manufacturing plants, research facilities, community centers, hospitals and nursing homes, farms, movie production, inland port facilities, lumber mills, forestry projects, and aquaculture. However, a few caveats apply: 1. The EB-5 regulations actually state that the contributions of each investor must create 10 new OR SAVED jobs. Hence in certain cases, rehabbing an old structure might also qualify if the existing jobs would have disappeared. In general, however, this is more difficult to show, and most EB-5 projects work best either with new construction, or with rehabbing old buildings that are currently vacant. 2. In general, residential buildings don’t work, unless they are combined with others. The problem is that residences create very few direct jobs, and only indirect and induced construction jobs can be counted. In general, residential construction projects supply less than half of the jobs needed to meet the EB-5 target. You have to be able to borrow more than 50% of the funding in order to make residential projects work. 3. The 10 new jobs must represent a net increase. For example, suppose someone builds a new shopping center next to an old one, and people start shopping at the new place, so the old one closes down and people lose their jobs. In that case, the total net effect would be a lot smaller than the number of new jobs at the new shopping center. The report must also to show there will not be a net loss of jobs elsewhere in the region when this new project opens. The Concept of a Regional Multiplier Not all multipliers are created equal. Some models generate larger multipliers for any given project. Yet all of the basic input/output data come from the same source, namely the Commerce Department. How could the results be different? There are two major answers to this question: geography and timing. The entire concept of a regional center is built around the idea that jobs will be created in a fairly narrowly defined region near the area where the new business is started. Generally that is a few contiguous counties. It is definitely not the entire state. And it is certainly not other parts of the country that have no geographical connection to the regional center. In general, the economic multipliers for a state are greater than a four-county region, and the multipliers for the U.S. are much greater than for an individual state. In the past, some EB-5 studies have relied on those larger multipliers to get the job count higher -- and some of them were accepted. In the past year, however, USCIS has made it clear that methodology will not be accepted, and have rejected these approaches. In terms of timing, other modeling processes use the methodology of a dynamic multiplier. In short, the idea here is that when a new business is started, more people will move into the area; that in turn will result in more new homes and shopping centers being built, which will create even more jobs, and so on. A variant of this approach is the "tourist" model, in which a new hotel, casino, amusement park, ski slope, etc. will not only create new direct and indirect jobs as defined by the input/output model but will attract many tourists who will then spend additional dollars on food, gifts, and tourist services, hence boosting the job creation figure substantially. In fact such developments might occur. However, anyone planning to start an EB-5 regional center should be aware that the USCIS has different rules for counting jobs than are usually applied to economic impact analyses. For example, direct construction jobs are usually not counted (see below). Also, jobs must be full-time; full-time equivalents are not permitted. Only jobs held by citizens can be counted. And, with respect to multiplier analysis, only the indirect and induced jobs generated by the direct activity of the new business can be counted. In short, no super-multipliers need apply. What About Distressed Properties? Many EB-5 prospects are asking about purchasing distressed properties at 1/3 or 1/4 of the previously assessed value, finding tenants for these properties, and then reselling them later at a substantial profit. In the meantime, because the cost of purchase is so low, substantial income and also be earned on the rents received before they are sold. Is this an appropriate model for the EB-5 program? As usual, the answer is "it all depends" but here are some guidelines to help you make a decision. 1. If it is an existing building, there won't be any jobs generated by new construction. However (see the next topic) that may not be a negative, because the USCIS often takes a jaundiced view of counting temporary construction jobs. 2. You will only get credit for new jobs, so for practical purposes the building should be nearly or completely vacant. You need the job credits by filling up the buildings with new tenants. If there are existing jobs there, you can only count them if you can prove they are part of a troubled business, which is often difficult to show. 3. Many new jobs can be created from retail, office, and industrial buildings; far less from residential. For practical purposes, there will be a few jobs from operating the residences, but the numbers only work out if you can buy the properties with substantial leverage (e.g., only 20% from EB-5 money, the rest borrowed from banks). 4. You want to be in a TEA; however, if the building is vacant, it may well be in a high-unemployment area, so this is not generally a very high hurdle. 5. In summary, then, you want to buy a vacant retail, office, or industrial building at 1/3 to 1/4 of its previously assessed value, find new tenants, collect the rents, and then sell out for a substantial profit in the next five years. 6. And now for the tough part: virtually every client asks us, how can I write a business plan and have you generate an economic report if I don't have the properties yet? I need EB-5 money to pay for them, so it seems like a chicken and egg problem. So here's the answer. Choose several likely properties and get USCIS approval on that basis. You will then be approved for those specific industries. If the properties fall through, you can then file an amendment for the specific property that is different from the one you orginially planned to purchase. Thie method is OK with USCIS as long as you inform them of the change. How are Construction Jobs Counted? We are probably asked that question more than any other. In general, it is always permissible to count the indirect and induced jobs from construction activity. These are calculated using the Expenditure Model. If, for example, construction expenditures for hard costs are $15 million, and output per construction worker in the county where the building is being constructed is $150,000, then 100 direct jobs would be created. These can't be counted, but the indirect and induced jobs, based on the IMPLAN multiplier, can be counted. The USCIS has ruled that if the construction project takes at least 2 years, direct jobs can also be counted. However, in order to use this method, you must show that the jobs are permanent. It is the position, rather than the person, that is important here. For example, if you were building a residential construction development with 100 homes, and an electrician worked (say) 2 weeks on each house but was employed continuously for 2 years, the job could be counted. Also, if two different electricians worked over this time span, the job could still be counted as long as the employment was continuous. By comparison, if you are building a shopping center and the site excavation team works for 4 months, the electricians for 6 months, the plumbers for 5 months, and so on, all those jobs would be considered temporary and could not be counted. Also, if you decide to use direct jobs, you must be able to produce W-2 and I-9 forms for each employee. Some contractors are reluctant to supply that information. The bottom line here is that unless you need the direct construction jobs to raise enough money, it is better not to count them. The major exception to this rule is for residential projects, where the workers go from one house (or condo, or apartment) to another over a period of several years. In those cases, we have been successful in counting direct jobs. A few other caveats: only hard construction costs can be counted. Yes, architects and engineers do represent new job positions, but they are included in the IMPLAN model in indirect jobs. Double-counting is not permitted. Finally, please note that in general, you cannot use construction expenditures that took place before the EB-5 application has been filed. This is another gray area, but to be on the safe side, you should follow this guideline.

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告Finally, please note that in general, you cannot use construction expenditures that took place before the EB-5 application has been filed. This is another gray area, but to be on the safe side, you should follow this guideline. 点击展开...那些花费型的贷款置换项目被拒绝的原因，很大程度是在EB-5投资人递交申请的时候，建筑花费已经发生了。移民局就不承认那个建筑花费贷款是过桥贷款，而把花费的产生的就业算给投资人。南州风电项目有类似的问题吧。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告学术贴！

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告就业报告是比较学术的，但是有几个要点是分析就业报告的关键。 首先看就业报告是什么INPUT类型的，IMPLAN 或 RIMS II不是关键， MULTIPLIER 也不是问题。对于EB-5的风险来讲，关键是项目的INPUT是下边的哪类。 1。 项目本身的直接就业。 2。 项目本身的营业收入。 3。 项目本身的建筑花费。 这些INPUT数据是项目方提供给经济师的，作为就业报告的根基。如果根基有问题，风险就在829阶段显现出来，有些投资人的829申请就不能通过。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告1。 项目本身的直接就业。 2。 项目本身的营业收入。 3。 项目本身的建筑花费。点击展开...这三类INPUT是项目方要在829阶段向移民局举证的资料。只有这些资料符合526时提交的就业报告的预期，投资人的829申请才可以批准通过。 829时期的实际INPUT和526时的就业报告里的INPUT预测的不一致的可能性就是投资人的永久绿卡风险。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告Immigrant investors -- and hence their lawyers and EB-5 developers -- may also meet this requirement by showing that the total amount of construction expenditures, and the total amount of gross (top-line) revenues that have been achieved are equal to or greater than the amount of expenditures or revenues that were stated in the original proposal. 点击展开...Ｉ－８２９绿卡申请的关键是项目实际花费或收入要比Ｉ－５２６的原始报告里的花费或收入相等或更高。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告因为EB-5绿卡是就业绿卡而不是商业风险绿卡。很多投资人，中介，甚至一些项目方都没有认识到就业报告对投资人得到829绿卡的重要性。有些负责任的项目方有决心去帮投资人申请永久绿卡成功，但没有掌握到正确的方式。这是我昨天与MILLER MAYER律师所的律师及项目方代表电话会议的讨论的问题。 现在开个贴子和投资人来研究一下就业报告的分析。欢迎投资人提深入的问题，切磋。 以下的文章是从著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS的网站摘贴的。他的讲解比较易懂。 How the EB-5 Program Works Overview The primary purpose of the program is to attract foreign investment to the U.S., which will create new jobs. From an economic viewpoint, the key requirement is that each investment must create a minimum of 10 new jobs. In some cases, the foreign party must invest a minimum of $1 million, while in other cases, the minimum is $500,000. The smaller number applies if the investment is located in (a) an area of high unemployment, currently defined as more than 150% of the national average unemployment rate for 2010, or (b) a rural area, currently defined as an area that is not in an MSA and is not within a municipality with population of over 20,000. Most of the EB-5 applications we have analyzed are based on the underlying assumption of a $500,000 investment per individual. How are the 10 jobs per investor calculated? In some cases, only direct jobs can be counted the jobs that are actually created by the new businesses that are started. In other cases, indirect and induced jobs can also be counted. For that to occur, the plan must include the formation of an EB-5 regional center, which requires additional paperwork, documentation, and economic analysis. However, because the job multipliers are usually at least 2, the incentives to form a regional center apply in almost all cases. We focus exclusively on those cases where regional centers are created. The comments here apply to the economic analysis. You will also need an immigration lawyer to prepare the requisite documents, and a local lawyer to prepare the private placement memorandum. Which model to use -- IMPLAN or RIMS II? There are several different input/output models accepted by the USCIS, but the two major ones are IMPLAN and RIMS II. The principal difference is that IMPLAN is an employment-driven model, while RIMS II is an output-drive model. To the non-economist, this may seem like a distinction without a difference. And in fact, the total number of jobs that are created as calculated by these two models is usually fairly similar. The big difference occurs at the verification stage. After the proposal has been submitted, it takes the USCIS several months to issue a decision. Once the approval has been obtained, individual immigrant investors must then file an I-526 petition, requesting a temporary green card. This process also usually takes several months. Once that is approved, another two years elapse. At that point, the immigrant investor files an I-829 petition requesting removal of the conditions on the temporary green card -- in other words, permission for the green card to become permanent. It is at that stage that the investor must show that 10 permanent new jobs have been created by the investment that was made at the beginning of the process. This requirement has led many investors -- and some EB-5 developers -- to assume that in fact they must produce documentary evidence for all direct permanent full-time jobs in the form of W-2s, I-9s, and quarterly payroll tax records. That is indeed one way to meet this requirement. BUT IT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY. Immigrant investors -- and hence their lawyers and EB-5 developers -- may also meet this requirement by showing that the total amount of construction expenditures, and the total amount of gross (top-line) revenues that have been achieved are equal to or greater than the amount of expenditures or revenues that were stated in the original proposal. In other words, verification can be made on expenditures and revenues as well as direct employees. If this latter method is used, then the economist uses the RIMS II input/output model for the economic impact analysis calculations. Thus each EB-5 developer, at the time of the original application, must determine which method is likely to be superior for verification at the I-829 level. An overwhelming majority of our clients have recently chosen the RIMS II model for the following reasons: 1. Verification of full-time workers may be difficult. Each employee must work 35 hours a week every week. In USCIS arithmetic, two half-time employees do not equal 1 full-time employee. They equal 0 full-time employees. This is particularly critical for construction jobs, and for seasonal and part-time jobs that are likely to occur in such industries as hotels, resorts, or retail sales. 2. All newly hired employees must be U.S. citizens. We assume that no one would deliberately skirt this requirement. On the other hand, illegal immigrants may obtain false papers. If the USCIS, with its deeper knowledge and data base of illegal immigrants, determines that false papers have been used, the developer has no recourse, and the I-829 petition will be denied. 3. Although the USCIS has repeatedly stated that it accepts a variety of recognized input/output model, the USCIS economist recently reiterated her position that she prefers the RIMS II model because of its greater transparency. Thus unless clients specifically state that they prefer the IMPLAN model and its direct employment approach, we will use the RIMS II model in our economic impact calculations. A Generic Example -- Retail Shopping Center To understand how the economic analysis works, consider the following generic example. A foreign investor plans to build a retail shopping center of 100,000 square feet. The construction costs will vary substantially depending on the location and type of buildings, but for purposes of this example, assume that the actual “hard” construction costs are $100 per square foot. Total costs, including soft costs, profits, and land purchases, are $200 per square foot. We make this distinction because, as will be explained below, the hard costs have some input into the total job count, whereas the other costs do not. The total hard construction cost is $10 million. This figure is multiplied by the RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction, which varies widely by region and can range anywhere from 5 to 20, although it is usually in the 10-15 range. Suppose it is 15. That means 150 total jobs would be created from construction activity, PROVIDING that all construction jobs can be counted. In many cases they cannot. The USCIS has ruled that for projects taking less than 2 years to complete, only the indirect and induced jobs can be counted. They are usually 1/3 to 1/2 of the total jobs. If the projects really do take more than 2 years, all jobs can be counted. However, in that case, the USCIS will require a timeline showing the expected expenditures each quarter. Do not be tempted to pretend that, for example, an 18-month project takes 2 years simply by stretching out the last 1% over a 6-month period. In general, a bell-shaped curve for expenditures would be appropriate. The actual sales per square foot will be based on the mix of stores and the location, but assume that the average is $500 per square foot. That would be a total of $50 million in sales. Here again, the RIMS II multiplier varies widely by region, but an average figure would be about 8. On this basis, 400 permanent new jobs would be created from the operations of the retail space. If all construction jobs are permanent, a total of 550 jobs would be created in this particular example. Since the EB-5 regulations require a minimum of 10 jobs per investor, that means there will be a maximum of 55 investors in this project. If each one puts up $500,000, the developer could raise up to $27.5 million, which would more than cover the $20 million total costs. However, it is always advisable to leave a cushion of 10% to 20% in case the sales goals are not met by the time the I-829 petition is filed. Actual cases will vary from this example. They depend, among other things, on the following parameters. All of these vary by the region chosen. 1. Cost of construction, per square foot2. RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction3. Mix of buildings constructed (big box stores, specialty shops, restaurants)4. Mix of retail stores (including restaurants)5. Sales per square foot for each type of establishment6. RIMS II final demand multiplier for retail sales All these data must be calculated separately for each individual project. The numbers are based on the RIMS II model, Census data, national and regional survey data, construction costs manuals, and individual research for specific projects. The numbers must be collected separately for each project and are not just “pulled off the shelf”. What are indirect and induced jobs? Indirect jobs are created when the business buys goods and services from local firms. For example, a construction firm might buy some of its materials locally, or purchase locally produced doors and windows or roof tiles. A retail store would buy some of its goods from wholesalers. It would probably hire outside firms for building maintenance, waste management, and security. Also, it would probably hire accountants, attorneys, and other professional business services. Induced jobs are created when the employees of the new business spend part of their paychecks on locally produced goods and services. That would ordinarily include purchases at supermarkets and gas stations, banking and real estate services, and health care. How big should the regional center be? It can range from a single project in a single location to a wide variety of projects covering an entire state. Currently, regional EB-5 centers exist for the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas, as well as smaller states such as Vermont and South Dakota. The amount of investment per regional center currently ranges from under $5 million to over $100 million. A distinction must be drawn, however, between the area covered by the regional center and the area used for calculating the employment multipliers. That area generally covers about four or five counties based on the pattern of where people live and work. Suppose, for example, a new project would be built in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. The employment multiplier would then include those counties where people live who work in Ft. Lauderdale; data on commuting patterns are available from the Census. In general, the counties are included that account for 90% to 95% of the total workforce of that county; in this example, the regional multipliers would be based on Miami-Dade and Broward counties. If too few counties are included, then the induced effects jobs created as new employees spend part of their paychecks locally would be understated. If too wide a region is included, the job multipliers would be overstated, and for that reason would probably be rejected by USCIS. Hence it is important to calculate the employment multipliers separately for each individual project, even if there are many such projects spread over a much larger area for the total regional center. Determining Areas of High Unemployment In some cases, entire counties will qualify because the unemployment rate is more than 150% of the national average. However, it is more often the case that the chosen area has a somewhat lower unemployment rate, but certain Census Tracts in the city or county have a sufficiently high unemployment rate to qualify as a Targeted Economic Area (TEA). In some cases, the governor of the state will provide such a list. In other cases, we calculate the TEAs based on unemployment and poverty statistics taken from Census data. There has been quite a bit of confusion about what areas qualify for a TEA. In a few cases, such as the state of Nevada for 2010, and a few urban counties in California and Florida, the unemployment rate exceeds the threshold level for 2010, which is 14.4%, so any location in Nevada, or in these high-unemployment counties, may be used. In general, however, that is not the case. The usual default position is to calculate the unemployment rate by individual census tract. While the BLS publishes monthly data on the unemployment rate for individual counties, and all cities with a population of over 20,000, the only unemployment rate data by Census Tract is for 2000. Hence these figures must be updated to 2010, using the Census Share method as explained in the Local Area Unemployment Statistics handbook. We will do these calculations for you. For any given address, we will determine whether the Census Tract where the planned facility will be located is a TEA. If it is, no further analysis is needed. However, it is more likely that the planned facility is NOT in a TEA. In that case, we will attempt to construct a TEA by combining that census tract with contiguous census tracts that have higher unemployment rates, such that the average unemployment rate in the combined area exceeds 14.4%. We will also undertake that calculation as part of our economic impact analysis report. Some states will then certify these results by writing a letter stating that the appropriately authorized agency of the state has verified that the area in question is a TEA. Some states, such as Florida and New York, are very helpful about writing such letters. California used to be helpful, but we were recently informed that due to budget cutbacks, they might not be able to provide that service any more. Many other states have been unwilling or unable to provide such certification. One final word about TEAs as they apply to rural locations. Your definition of "rural" may not be the same as the Census Bureau. Any county that is part of a metropolitan statistical area may not be considered rural, even if in fact the location you have chosen is devoid of population and overrun with scrub brush. You have to be outside an MSA to get the rural definition. Furthermore, even in rural counties, any city with a population of 20,000 or more will not qualify as a TEA based on the rural definition. What kind of businesses qualify? Virtually any legitimate business qualifies for which at least 10 permanent new full-time jobs are created per investor. It can be in manufacturing, retail trade, services, non-profit, research and development, or agriculture. Some of the businesses that have recently been approved include hotels, retail shopping centers and restaurants, office buildings, warehouses, manufacturing plants, research facilities, community centers, hospitals and nursing homes, farms, movie production, inland port facilities, lumber mills, forestry projects, and aquaculture. However, a few caveats apply: 1. The EB-5 regulations actually state that the contributions of each investor must create 10 new OR SAVED jobs. Hence in certain cases, rehabbing an old structure might also qualify if the existing jobs would have disappeared. In general, however, this is more difficult to show, and most EB-5 projects work best either with new construction, or with rehabbing old buildings that are currently vacant. 2. In general, residential buildings don’t work, unless they are combined with others. The problem is that residences create very few direct jobs, and only indirect and induced construction jobs can be counted. In general, residential construction projects supply less than half of the jobs needed to meet the EB-5 target. You have to be able to borrow more than 50% of the funding in order to make residential projects work. 3. The 10 new jobs must represent a net increase. For example, suppose someone builds a new shopping center next to an old one, and people start shopping at the new place, so the old one closes down and people lose their jobs. In that case, the total net effect would be a lot smaller than the number of new jobs at the new shopping center. The report must also to show there will not be a net loss of jobs elsewhere in the region when this new project opens. The Concept of a Regional Multiplier Not all multipliers are created equal. Some models generate larger multipliers for any given project. Yet all of the basic input/output data come from the same source, namely the Commerce Department. How could the results be different? There are two major answers to this question: geography and timing. The entire concept of a regional center is built around the idea that jobs will be created in a fairly narrowly defined region near the area where the new business is started. Generally that is a few contiguous counties. It is definitely not the entire state. And it is certainly not other parts of the country that have no geographical connection to the regional center. In general, the economic multipliers for a state are greater than a four-county region, and the multipliers for the U.S. are much greater than for an individual state. In the past, some EB-5 studies have relied on those larger multipliers to get the job count higher -- and some of them were accepted. In the past year, however, USCIS has made it clear that methodology will not be accepted, and have rejected these approaches. In terms of timing, other modeling processes use the methodology of a dynamic multiplier. In short, the idea here is that when a new business is started, more people will move into the area; that in turn will result in more new homes and shopping centers being built, which will create even more jobs, and so on. A variant of this approach is the "tourist" model, in which a new hotel, casino, amusement park, ski slope, etc. will not only create new direct and indirect jobs as defined by the input/output model but will attract many tourists who will then spend additional dollars on food, gifts, and tourist services, hence boosting the job creation figure substantially. In fact such developments might occur. However, anyone planning to start an EB-5 regional center should be aware that the USCIS has different rules for counting jobs than are usually applied to economic impact analyses. For example, direct construction jobs are usually not counted (see below). Also, jobs must be full-time; full-time equivalents are not permitted. Only jobs held by citizens can be counted. And, with respect to multiplier analysis, only the indirect and induced jobs generated by the direct activity of the new business can be counted. In short, no super-multipliers need apply. What About Distressed Properties? Many EB-5 prospects are asking about purchasing distressed properties at 1/3 or 1/4 of the previously assessed value, finding tenants for these properties, and then reselling them later at a substantial profit. In the meantime, because the cost of purchase is so low, substantial income and also be earned on the rents received before they are sold. Is this an appropriate model for the EB-5 program? As usual, the answer is "it all depends" but here are some guidelines to help you make a decision. 1. If it is an existing building, there won't be any jobs generated by new construction. However (see the next topic) that may not be a negative, because the USCIS often takes a jaundiced view of counting temporary construction jobs. 2. You will only get credit for new jobs, so for practical purposes the building should be nearly or completely vacant. You need the job credits by filling up the buildings with new tenants. If there are existing jobs there, you can only count them if you can prove they are part of a troubled business, which is often difficult to show. 3. Many new jobs can be created from retail, office, and industrial buildings; far less from residential. For practical purposes, there will be a few jobs from operating the residences, but the numbers only work out if you can buy the properties with substantial leverage (e.g., only 20% from EB-5 money, the rest borrowed from banks). 4. You want to be in a TEA; however, if the building is vacant, it may well be in a high-unemployment area, so this is not generally a very high hurdle. 5. In summary, then, you want to buy a vacant retail, office, or industrial building at 1/3 to 1/4 of its previously assessed value, find new tenants, collect the rents, and then sell out for a substantial profit in the next five years. 6. And now for the tough part: virtually every client asks us, how can I write a business plan and have you generate an economic report if I don't have the properties yet? I need EB-5 money to pay for them, so it seems like a chicken and egg problem. So here's the answer. Choose several likely properties and get USCIS approval on that basis. You will then be approved for those specific industries. If the properties fall through, you can then file an amendment for the specific property that is different from the one you orginially planned to purchase. Thie method is OK with USCIS as long as you inform them of the change. How are Construction Jobs Counted? We are probably asked that question more than any other. In general, it is always permissible to count the indirect and induced jobs from construction activity. These are calculated using the Expenditure Model. If, for example, construction expenditures for hard costs are $15 million, and output per construction worker in the county where the building is being constructed is $150,000, then 100 direct jobs would be created. These can't be counted, but the indirect and induced jobs, based on the IMPLAN multiplier, can be counted. The USCIS has ruled that if the construction project takes at least 2 years, direct jobs can also be counted. However, in order to use this method, you must show that the jobs are permanent. It is the position, rather than the person, that is important here. For example, if you were building a residential construction development with 100 homes, and an electrician worked (say) 2 weeks on each house but was employed continuously for 2 years, the job could be counted. Also, if two different electricians worked over this time span, the job could still be counted as long as the employment was continuous. By comparison, if you are building a shopping center and the site excavation team works for 4 months, the electricians for 6 months, the plumbers for 5 months, and so on, all those jobs would be considered temporary and could not be counted. Also, if you decide to use direct jobs, you must be able to produce W-2 and I-9 forms for each employee. Some contractors are reluctant to supply that information. The bottom line here is that unless you need the direct construction jobs to raise enough money, it is better not to count them. The major exception to this rule is for residential projects, where the workers go from one house (or condo, or apartment) to another over a period of several years. In those cases, we have been successful in counting direct jobs. A few other caveats: only hard construction costs can be counted. Yes, architects and engineers do represent new job positions, but they are included in the IMPLAN model in indirect jobs. Double-counting is not permitted. Finally, please note that in general, you cannot use construction expenditures that took place before the EB-5 application has been filed. This is another gray area, but to be on the safe side, you should follow this guideline. 点击展开...你不是曾经很鄙视著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS，说人家的报告不比媒体记者强多少吗？

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不理闲事，不听废话，低头做事，抬头看路！均属个人观点，与所在机构无关那些花费型的贷款置换项目被拒绝的原因，很大程度是在EB-5投资人递交申请的时候，建筑花费已经发生了。移民局就不承认那个建筑花费贷款是过桥贷款，而把花费的产生的就业算给投资人。南州风电项目有类似的问题吧。点击展开...目前这是尚存争议的灰色地带。Evans 的说法也是从某种程度上或从另一个角度说明，置换贷款是可以的。 不要形而上学地探讨EB-5试点方案在实践中的操作。USCIS的最新做法是承认到该产业类别被USCIS批准的时间。 那么EB-5申请人在申请前就完成了初始投资呢，项目已经开工，这也不能算吗？显然是错的。

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不理闲事，不听废话，低头做事，抬头看路！均属个人观点，与所在机构无关回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告补充一点： 就业分析报告 和 经济影响报告 还是很大区别的。

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不理闲事，不听废话，低头做事，抬头看路！均属个人观点，与所在机构无关Ｉ－８２９绿卡申请的关键是项目实际花费或收入要比Ｉ－５２６的原始报告里的花费或收入相等或更高。点击展开...这句话也不全对！ I-829基于采用的经济模型的不同，必须区分开建筑硬成本和软成本（IMPLAN 会把建筑师、设计师等计算成间接就业），因此如果造成总体花费I-829时上涨是由于软成本增加，而硬成本却减少了，也是会有问题的。

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不理闲事，不听废话，低头做事，抬头看路！均属个人观点，与所在机构无关你不是曾经很鄙视著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS，说人家的报告不比媒体记者强多少吗？点击展开...我不如你那么情绪化，我不鄙视任何人。我在美国的习惯是不把权威当上帝。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告目前这是尚存争议的灰色地带。Evans 的说法也是从某种程度上或从另一个角度说明，置换贷款是可以的。 不要形而上学地探讨EB-5试点方案在实践中的操作。USCIS的最新做法是承认到该产业类别被USCIS批准的时间。 那么EB-5申请人在申请前就完成了初始投资呢，项目已经开工，这也不能算吗？显然是错的。点击展开...EVANS劝投资人小心贷款置换的ｅｂ－５项目，因为有被移民局否决的风险。你做为中介偏偏把投资人推上贼船，居心叵测　看看南州风电项目的投资人怎么对付你了。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告这句话也不全对！ I-829基于采用的经济模型的不同，必须区分开建筑硬成本和软成本（IMPLAN 会把建筑师、设计师等计算成间接就业），因此如果造成总体花费I-829时上涨是由于软成本增加，而硬成本却减少了，也是会有问题的。点击展开...花费型的项目在Ｉ－５２６阶段提出的成本预算是不能改变的。少有变动就造成８２９被拒的风险。不管是软成本有多少变动，硬成本只可以增加，不能减少。这样间接就业人数才不会减少，投资人的永久绿卡才可以通过。

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回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告据悉南州风电美国移民局存在明显的错误，相信一个月之内就会有胜利的消息。

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