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John Gezelius • Kevin, this sounds a bit like a final exam question . . . I don’t think that tenant occupancy will be resolved in the next year. The administration in Washington is in flux and the new folks won’t be in place for six months or more, despite the Democrats win in November. Couple that with the desire of Congress to get involved (while still looking for the men’s room) will only slow down the decision making and rules publication process. If an investor or project promoter is looking for tenant occupancy then I think they’ll have a long wait. If folks are anxious to get started then smaller, less complicated projects will rise through the bureaucratic mist. Individual investors with their own projects, or small developers in need of a small ($2,000,000) capital infusion stand to move up the chain. The downside is that these folks don’t have the overseas (read Chinese) connections. The brokers and agents in China want to promote big, glitzy projects for which they can garner large fees. A small project isn’t in a position to offer a big commission to an overseas broker. As a result the overseas brokers may suffer a business downturn from the US inspired investments. Will this cause them to push Canadian investment? Perhaps so. The compensation of brokers and agents will be directly tied to the downsizing of projects. Without tenant occupancy the job creation picture is tougher and a broker or agent will have to do some homework to sift out bad projects (risk / job creation) from good projects (lower risk / reasonable number of direct jobs). The Regional Center concept isn’t dead but until tenant occupancy is resolved then those RC projects that would depend on tenants will be on hold. The brokers won’t like this but this is the new reality, or at least the new reality until new rules are issued. The folks in the catbird seat will be the ones with smaller projects that require minimal capital investment, in businesses that can be easily understood and defined. No razzle-dazzle, no smoke and mirrors. This will require work by the overseas investor to find an investment that they feel comfortable with as the “helpful agent” may have less interest in a smaller project as it represents less income for him.13 hours ago• Like
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