加拿大华人论坛 加拿大生活信息加拿大统计局30日表示，加拿大第一季度GDP季降

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HEATHER SCOFFIELDFriday, May 30, 2008 OTTAWA ― Canada may well be in the midst of a mild recession for the first time since the early 1990s, but a healthy stream of income from high commodity prices means many people aren't feeling the pinch. The Canadian economy contracted 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, the first quarterly decline in five years.Many analysts expect another small contraction in the second quarter, meeting the traditional definition of recession as two consecutive declines in real gross domestic product (GDP). Even if this is a recession, it comes at a time when unemployment is near a 30-year low, personal disposable income is soaring and energy revenues are gushing in to corporate profits and government coffers. “People and companies don't feel horrible about the current situation,” said Ted Carmichael, chief economist for J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. With personal disposable income rising at an 8.5-per-cent pace in the first quarter, Mr. Carmichael said, this slump feels nothing like the six quarters of deep contraction that Canada experienced in the early 1980s, and more like the lethargy felt in 2000 and 2001, when Canada narrowly averted recession. While Mr. Carmichael is forecasting another 0.3-per-cent contraction in the second quarter of 2008, he hesitates to throw around the “R” word. “It's one of those recessions that could always get revised away,” he said. “Is it two negative quarters? It looks like it. I'd rather say [the economy] is completely stalled out as opposed to recession.” The economy has been steadily losing steam over the past year. During the first quarter of 2007, it grew at a 4.1-per-cent annual pace, then slowed to 2.3 per cent by midyear.As the American demand for Canadian exports weakened and auto makers reeled, Canada slowed down to 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, and then went into reverse during the first three months of this year, with cutbacks in auto production hitting hard once again, Statistics Canada reported. Even excluding the auto sector and its ripple effects, the Canadian economy barely eked out any growth, the agency said. In Montreal, where he was meeting with finance ministers from across the country, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty seized on the slight growth outside of the auto sector. He rejected talk of a recession, and repeated his mantra that the Canadian economy is “solid” and “strong.”It may seem puzzling that the U.S. economy expanded by 0.9 per cent in the first quarter and is likely to see just one quarter of contraction this year, but at the same time, weak U.S. demand is the main reason Canada is contracting.Economists pointed out that real GDP numbers for the United States understate the pain that home owners are feeling from a collapsing housing market. Their net worth is deteriorating and unemployment is climbing. Strong exports are masking the domestic weakness. In the United States, GDP figures aside, “basically every indicator you can shake a stick at is screaming ‘recession,'” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. In Canada, however, net worth is on the rise, the real estate market is not collapsing, unemployment is low and shoppers are active. Canada's real GDP numbers, made weak by a plunge in manufacturing and exports, are masking Canada's strengths, Mr. Porter said. But how long can an economy prosper on the fumes of oil and gas while actual production stagnates? Only as long as commodity prices remain sky-high, economists say.“It's just about over,” said Mr. Carmichael, who said he believes commodity prices are like a bubble about to burst.Mr. Porter is more optimistic, and sees commodity prices staying high. The 0.3-per-cent contraction of the economy in the first quarter, he says, “understates the relative performance of the Canadian economy by a mile.”With files from Kevin Carmichael in Montreal © The Globe and Mail

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超级签证保险/探亲保险/新移民保险/外出旅游保险/人寿保险 416-834-9204 (Toronto)/ 403-228-1798 (Calgary)/ 604-637-2195 (Vancouver) 1-877-834-9204(Toll Free) 网站： [email protected]; [email protected]回复: GDP posts first quarterly decline in 5 years加拿大统计局30日表示，加拿大第一季度GDP季降0.1%年降0.3%，市场预期中值为年升0.4%。　　综合外电5月30日报道，加拿大统计局30日表示，加拿大第一季度经济出现5年来的首次收缩，暗示加拿大央行将会在6月再次采取降息措施。　　此外，出口出现连续第三个季度的下降，对房屋的商业投资缩减，对机械和设备的投资减速，消费者支出减速。　　第一季度GDP季降0.1%年降0.3%，这是03年第二季度以来的首次收缩。市场预期中值为年升0.4%。　　3月GDP月降0.2%，市场预期为月升0.2%。　　加元在数据公布后立即疲弱。美东时间8:30，美元报0.9942加元，高于数据公布前的0.9920加元水平。

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