在加拿大
这是他的原文：So it’s on. The trade war we all feared but hoped would never happen has exploded. Who knows where it will end? The world has not seen anything like this since the 1930s when President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. That set in motion a series of international retaliatory actions that slashed U.S. exports by 61% and imports by 66% between 1929 and 1933. And what did that do for the U.S. economy? Gross national product dropped 46% in that period. The unemployment rate in that country rose from 8% at the time the Act was signed to 25% four years later.None of this has deterred President Trump and his advisors from embarking on the same protectionist journey. There are some who claim this is just an aggressive negotiating tactic by the President to get a better NAFTA deal. I don’t think so. Mr. Trump is proving to be an ultra-conservative ideologue who is doing everything he can to implement his beliefs.He has already indicated that he will not stop with steel and aluminum when it comes to Canada. He now has our auto industry in his sights – about 80% of the cars we build are exported to the U.S. And he recently tweeted again about how U.S. dairy farmers were being mistreated by Canada’s supply management system and took another swipe at our lumber exports. It appears there is more bad news to come from Washington, as last week’s G7 Summit in Quebec demonstrated.Canada’s response may seem huge in our terms, but it’s a pinprick for the U.S. economy. Slapping tariffs on items as diverse as ketchup, toilet paper, playing cards, soy sauce, and inflatable boats, as well as U.S. steel and aluminum, will inflict minor pain on some U.S. companies, but it will be nothing like we are likely to experience.So far, the markets appear to have taken all this in stride. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been posting triple-digit daily gains, while the TSX makes steady weekly gains. But investors may be whistling past the graveyard.Let’s consider the best and worst things that may flow from this situation.The best case: a negotiating tacticThe best-case scenario is that this is indeed a negotiating tactic that works. Here’s how it might play out: Canada and Mexico bend on their NAFTA positions, and the U.S. softens just enough to get a quick deal that satisfies the President, while leaving the other two partners with a modicum of dignity. A memo of understanding is signed within a month, the metals tariffs are revoked, as are the retaliatory measures, and life in the North American trade world returns to a degree of normalcy. I put the odds on that happening at 25% at best.The worst case: global economic disruptionThe worst-case scenario would unfold over a longer time period. In the initial stages of this scenario, we would see a decline in Canadian exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. and corresponding layoffs in the affected industries. We would also see consumer prices begin to rise on targeted U.S. imports.Rising prices would boost inflation, which is already close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target and is expected to rise due to higher gasoline prices. That in turn would increase the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates. The result would be to push the loonie higher, making our exports even less competitive and putting the squeeze on highly indebted mortgage holders.Higher interest rates would further erode the market price of bonds, certain types of preferred shares, and interest-sensitive stocks, such as utilities and telecoms. We have seen evidence of this already. On the other hand, higher rates could boost the earnings of banks and insurance companies, provided they did not lead to widespread bankruptcies.If the trade war becomes as nasty as it did in the 1930s, the global economy, which has become increasingly inter-dependent, will falter. Recession or even depression in many countries is the probable outcome.What investors can do to prepareAs an investor, what should you do? Here are some suggestions.Reduce exposure to Canada. We will fare far worse than the U.S. in a trade war, and growing uncertainty about the future will curtail capital investment. Apart from financial companies and the newly-revived energy sector, there are few areas of the TSX that inspire confidence. One exception: companies that do a lot of business within U.S. and are not hit by the new tariffs.Increase exposure to the U.S. Mr. Trump has proved he is no friend to Canada (or any other ally for that matter). However, his policies have revitalized the U.S. economy, particularly the corporate tax cut and the slashing of crippling regulations. Unemployment in the U.S. is below 4%, the lowest in almost two decades, and the American stock market continues to hit new highs.Raise cash. If the worst-case scenario unfolds, the world economy will eventually tank. At that point, you want to be in a position to take advantage of the bargains that will emerge, as they did in 2008.We are now sailing in waters not seen in almost 90 years. There is no way of knowing how it will all turn out, but we should be prepared for anything.
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Life is simple, but not easy.Public Mobile DealPublic Mobile 激活 赏 2018-06-19#2
付费矿工 1,951$(0.35$赞力,#26) 28,744 $5.85 $1,950.50 此文虽是昨天（6月18日）发表的，但应该是6月11日写的，因里面提到杜氏指数有三位数字的增幅。我查看雅虎的财经，从5月29日至6月11日确实是如此。但从今年一月高点看，杜氏指数到昨天为止已下跌6%。评论
Life is simple, but not easy.Public Mobile DealPublic Mobile 激活 赏
反馈:shi-ma-he, laox888 和 Snowman 2018-06-19#3 
16,255 $0.00 A good read.评论
对股市的安排，是美段还是加股，见仁见智。但对比美股来说，加股仍然在高点附近。有关利率的上升，投资房地产的同学们要小心了。但另一方面，由于利率上升，反而是投资银行股和保险段的好时机。
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Life is simple, but not easy.Public Mobile DealPublic Mobile 激活A good read.点击展开...对胡佛总统30年代实行的关税那段历史不了解。是不是因为此关税而引起30年代的大萧条？
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Life is simple, but not easy.Public Mobile DealPublic Mobile 激活对胡佛总统30年代实行的关税那段历史不了解。是不是因为此关税而引起30年代的大萧条？点击展开...他这么一说 好像90%关税引起的一样我不知道但是 30的萧条 原因很多吧
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哈法 说:对股市的安排，是美段还是加股，见仁见智。但对比美股来说，加股仍然在高点附近。有关利率的上升，投资房地产的同学们要小心了。但另一方面，由于利率上升，反而是投资银行股和保险段的好时机。点击展开...现在加股这么便宜了（相对于美元），还算相对于美股是高点？
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哈法 说:对股市的安排，是美段还是加股，见仁见智。但对比美股来说，加股仍然在高点附近。有关利率的上升，投资房地产的同学们要小心了。但另一方面，由于利率上升，反而是投资银行股和保险段的好时机。点击展开...你们说今年加拿大央行会加息吗? 原定的7月份加息会不会往后推？
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美丽的夏天，美丽的Winnipeg 赏 2018-06-19#9
1,480 $0.00 如果美国对加拿大提高汽车关税，会导致加拿大安省工人大批失业。本来安省房价就比较高，银行已经收紧房贷，如果这个时候央行再提高利息，估计加拿大经济就会进入萧条。评论
美丽的夏天，美丽的Winnipeg他这么一说 好像90%关税引起的一样我不知道但是 30的萧条 原因很多吧点击展开...资本是通过创造虚拟经济也就是造泡沫来运行的，什么加杠杆，什么股市期市融资炒汇理贷房产等。是资本层太贪婪制造泡沫太大，就象垒鸡蛋，那时候已经到崩溃边缘，任何契机都可能引发崩盘，并不是关税导致的，但关税是个引子。
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大大哥 说:现在加股这么便宜了（相对于美元），还算相对于美股是高点？点击展开...我的意思是TSX 52周最高点是16,421，今天是16,339，所以仍然是在高点，加股基本没跌。DJI 52周最高点是26,616， 今天是24,713 ，已下跌7%。
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Life is simple, but not easy.Public Mobile DealPublic Mobile 激活 赏
反馈:shi-ma-he 和 大大哥 2018-06-21#12 付费矿工 1,951$(0.35$赞力,#26) 28,744 $5.85 $1,950.50 从这几天美股的不断下跌，而加股昨日创新高，加币继续疲弱来看，Gordon Pape 的策略暂时来说是错误的。另一方面是不是有外国基金离开美股转投加股？
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