加拿大华人论坛 加拿大生活信息zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期

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多伦多信息港(记者季翔报道)：加拿大银行(Bank of Canada)在周一表示维持主要利率不变，同时提高了对今年以及2010年国内经济的预期。 加拿大银行(央行)将隔夜利率维持在0.25%，并重申将维持此利率直至2010年年中。央行现在表示预计今年经济将萎缩2.3%，其四月份曾预计萎缩3%。至于2010年，其预计经济增长3%，四月份的预期曾是2.5%，但央行降低了对2011年的预期，从先前的增长4.7%降至3.5%。 央行称金融形势好转、物价趋于稳定、企业和消费者信心回复以及一系列财政政策都在促进国内消费。然而，央行也警告说加元升值以及一些工业部门的重组“正严重迟缓经济增长步伐”。 加元兑美元汇率自今年3月9日达到最低的76.98美分后一直呈上涨势头，本周二其交易价就上涨0.67美分，至91.02美分。加元强势使得加拿大出口到最大贸易伙伴――美国的商品更贵，对出口极为不利。

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岁月静好！回复: zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期Bank of Canada tantalizingly close to declaring recession over, brightens outlookBy Julian Beltrame, The Canadian PressOTTAWA - The Bank of Canada has brightened its outlook for the Canadian economy, saying Tuesday it now thinks this year's downturn won't be as deep as previously forecast and 2010 growth will be stronger. The bank did as expected in keeping its key policy rate at the historic 0.25-per-cent low and repeating a pledge to keep it there until the spring of 2010. But in a surprising move, the central bank said it is reducing the amount of money it is making available to chartered banks in order to support borrowing and lending because the need for such extraordinary measures is waning. And it came as close as it has ever done to predicting the end of the most severe recession since the Second World War. "There are increasing signs that economic activity has begun to expand in many countries," the central bank said in an accompanying statement. "(In Canada,) stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are spurring domestic demand," it added. Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter said the outlook was brighter than expected, considering the caution recommended by bank governor Mark Carney's most recent public statements. "They didn't quite say 'Ding Dong, the Recession's Dead,' but I think they really wanted to," Porter said. "They danced all around the topic." He bases that conclusion on the bank's new numbers on future growth. Carney is now forecasting the Canadian economy will shrink by 2.3 per cent this year - a big improvement from April's three per cent contraction forecast - and grow half-a-point more than projected at three per cent in 2010. Given how far the economy fell back in the first half of 2009, it is virtually impossible for the deterioration to be held to 2.3 per cent for the entire year without growth beginning now, during the current third quarter, Porter said. CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld noted that the three per cent growth projection for next year once again puts Carney among the most optimistic of analysts. Most private sector forecasts have the advance at about two per cent. Even so, Carney is making clear that he has not changed his mind that the road back to where the economy stood before the recession will be long and arduous, saying it will not be until mid-2011 before the economy will be running on all cylinders again. Part of the reason is that restructuring in the auto, forestry and other sectors will take time and will hold back economic activity. The other is that the return of a strong dollar will hold back exports. "The Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth," Carney said. After falling back in June, the loonie is now back into the territory that caused Carney to warn the currency's rapid rise threatened to "fully offset positive factors" in the economy. It was trading up at close to 91 cents US Tuesday morning. But Carney gave no indication he favours intervention. If anything, Carney's latest warning about the dollar represents an easing of the previous concern, said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist with the Royal Bank. That suggests that although Carney wished the dollar were lower, he is unlikely to break the hands-off approach to the current has followed for over a decade, said several economists. Besides, a high dollar is not all bad news for Canada, notes Scotiabank economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes in a note. "While a stronger dollar does increase the price of exports, conversely, it also decreases the price of imports," they wrote. "And Canada's imports propensity of the components of final demand is quite high, suggesting that Canada also benefits from a stronger dollar." Carney's other Tuesday surprise was his strong statement about improving financial markets. The decision to reduce the level of money the bank is injecting into the system had been suggested by some economists, noting that in some cases banks were not drawing down as much as the Bank of Canada was making available. Some instruments were not being used at all recently. Carney appeared to signal that he may be preparing to phase out the unconventional instruments put in place when credit markets seized up as early as this fall. "Conditions in funding markets have continued to improve," he explained in a separate statement. "Indicative measures of bank funding costs ... have declined steadily from the September 2008 peak to stabilize at their lowest levels since the onset of the financial crisis." The central banker noted, however, that he remains committed to providing liquidity "as required," to support the stability of the financial system.

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岁月静好！回复: zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期看起来低利率要维持到明年春了,如果不出所料,明年经济会回暖.

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岁月静好！回复: zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期让低利率持续持续下去吧。。。

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家住素里QQ群，群号82591745，欢迎加入~大家可以通过加入QQ群，找到我微信，然后加入家住素里微信群。谢谢！回复: zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期晕，这下亏大了。。。现在还有什么别的安全的投资渠道吗？

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回复: zt加拿大央行维持主要利率不变 调高经济预期让低利率持续持续下去吧。。。点击展开...嗯哪，坚决不锁定。。。反正前一阵锁了也都是4了（锁定没有新客户优惠幅度大的），不如1.6的拖着再说；运气好能拖到明年下半年就两年了，之后3年哪怕基准涨到7都不亏的

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