在加拿大
来源: 华尔街日报 于 2017-9-28
瑞银周四发布了最新的全球房地产“泡沫指数”，列出了全球房地产泡沫风险最大的主要城市。加拿大在前四名中占两席，多伦多居首，温哥华排第四，斯德哥尔摩和慕尼黑分列二三。
美国城市排名相当靠前，旧金山和洛杉矶楼市处于“估值过高”区域，但尚未进入泡沫区域。纽约楼市被认为估值合理，芝加哥是20个上榜城市中唯一被视为估值过低的的城市。
由于全球经济增长改善、低失业率和超低利率等因素推高了资产价格，有关资产泡沫的担忧也再度升温。在股市接近纪录高点而利率接近于零（一些国家甚至是负利率）的情况下，住宅等不动产的吸引力进一步增强，尤其是在被视为避风港的国家。
如果全球经济受到冲击，导致偿债难度加大，或者央行更激进地加息推高了借贷成本，房地产泡沫问题将暴露出来。
瑞银认为，波士顿房地产市场估值合理。该行利用房价收入比和房贷与国内生产总值(GDP)之比等分类指数编制了一个整体指数。该指数若高于1.5，将意味着房价处于泡沫区域，1.5-0.5是估值过高区域。
瑞银指出，多伦多和温哥华并没有受到全球金融危机的拖累，因为加元贬值缓冲了金融危机的打击。瑞银称，加拿大央行维持过度宽松政策的时间太久，加之外来者购房需求旺盛，使得这两个城市的房地产市场偏离了经济基本面，如今这两个市场都处于泡沫风险区域。
报告还称，如果加元走强且加拿大央行进一步加息，将结束该国这场楼市盛宴。
瑞银称，按通胀调整后价格计算，目前美国城市的房价仍低于2008年触及的高点，但旧金山例外，该地区楼市出现估值过高迹象，但鉴于硅谷空前繁荣、经济基本面强劲，旧金山楼市还不存在泡沫风险。
欧洲方面，瑞银指出，随着一些关键城市收入强劲增长，经济景气出现改善，过低的借款利率催生了对城市住房的旺盛需求。
亚太地区，自2013年日本央行推出量化宽松计划以来，东京楼市出现过热迹象；而在贪婪的投资者需求和炒楼预期的推动下，香港房价创下纪录新高。
瑞银所在的瑞士表现良好。苏黎世和日内瓦楼市看起来估值过高，但程度不算显著。
Blame Canada? Toronto, Vancouver Top Housing Bubble Risks
The U.S.’s northerly neighbor is home to two of the world’s most overvalued cities, says UBSBy Brian Blackstone
Sept. 28, 2017 6:46 a.m. ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/blame-canada-toronto-vancouver-top-housing-bubble-risks-1506595601
Blame Canada?
It isn’t just the tune made famous by the South Park movie. It may become a motto among economists if frothy housing values around the world turn into a destabilizing bubble.
UBS published its latest global real estate “bubble index” on Thursday, listing the major cities most at risk of housing bubbles. Canada took two of the top four spots, with Toronto on top and Vancouver at number four, and Northern Europe’s Munich and Stockholm sandwiched between.
U.S. cities featured pretty highly, with San Francisco and Los Angeles in “overvalued,” but not bubble territory. New York was deemed fairly valued, and Chicago was the only city in the 20 listed that was undervalued.
Concerns over asset bubbles have regained steam as improved world economic growth, low unemployment and ultra-low interest rates have pushed up asset values. With stock prices near record highs and interest rates near zero, or even negative in some countries, real assets like housing have become more attractive, particularly in c ountries considered havens.
The problem occurs if a shock hits the global economy that makes it harder to pay off debt, or if central banks raise interest rates more aggressively, pushing borrowing costs higher.
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren alluded to the dangers of high asset prices in a speech Wednesday, without referring specifically to housing.
“Trends, as best I can see them at present, suggest to me an economy that risks pushing past what is sustainable, raising the probability of higher asset prices, or inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% percent target,” he said.
UBS lists Boston’s real-estate market as fair-valued. Its uses sub-indexes such as price-to-income and mortgage-to-gross domestic product ratios to construct an overall index. Index readings above 1.5 are in bubble territory and the overvaluation scale slides down from there.
UBS noted that Toronto and Vancouver weren’t “dragged down” by the global financial crisis, as a weaker Canadian dollar cushioned the blow. “Overly loose monetary policy, for too long, in addition to buoyant foreign demand, unmoored their housing markets from economic fundamentals—and both markets are now in bubble risk territory.”
“A strengthening Canadian dollar and further interest rate hikes would end the party,” the report added.
In the U.S., housing prices in cities are still below their 2008 peak in inflation-adjusted terms, UBS said, except for San Francisco which “shows signs of overvaluation but no bubble risk, given its strong economic fundamentals amid the astonishing boom of tech companies.”
Turning to Europe, UBS said that “improving economic sentiment, partly accompanied by robust income growth in the key cities, has conspired with excessively low borrowing rates to spur vigorous demand for urban housing.”
In the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo shows “moderate signs of overheating” since the Bank of Japan launched its quantitative easing program in 2013, while residential prices in Hong Kong reached all-time highs mid-year “thanks to insatiable investor demand and speculative price expectations.”
UBS’s home base, Switzerland fared pretty well. Zurich and Geneva were deemed overvalued, but only “moderately” so.
Write to Brian Blackstone at [email protected]
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想看瑞银报告（2017 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index）的点以下链接：
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/features/global-real-estate-bubble-index-2017.html
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和国内比都算小儿科
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